Why food prices stay high when inflation falls
The news says inflation is down. The supermarket receipt says the weekly shop is still dear. Both can be true at the same time.
By Graeme · 1 August 2026 · 6 min read
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Inflation tells us how quickly prices are changing. It does not tell us that prices have returned to where they started. A lower inflation rate can still mean a more expensive weekly shop.
The simplest explanation
Imagine a basket costs £100. After a 10% rise it costs £110. If inflation then falls to 2%, the basket does not go back to £102. It rises again to £112.20. The speed of the rise fell; the price did not.
Falling inflation is not falling prices
Prices falling across a category is called deflation. It can happen to individual items, but a lower positive inflation rate means the overall price level is still going up.
What happened to food prices
38.6% higher
UK food and non-alcoholic drink prices in November 2025 than in November 2020
Official ONS price data. The rise is cumulative across five years.
Pay also rose for many workers, but not every income kept up and not every household starts from the same position. Someone already spending nearly all income on essentials cannot swap a holiday or savings contribution for dearer food. There may be nothing flexible left.
Why food rose so sharply
Several shocks landed together. Energy became more expensive for farms, factories, refrigeration and transport. Fertiliser and other inputs rose. Bad harvests and global disruption affected some products. Labour and packaging costs also changed.
Brexit added a UK-specific cost. Research from the London School of Economics estimated that new non-tariff barriers added about eight percentage points to food-price growth from late 2019 to March 2023 — roughly £250 for the average household over that period. It is an academic estimate, not a receipt count, and I label it that way.
Can food prices actually fall?
Individual products move up and down all the time. A supermarket can also cut one visible price while another size shrinks or a promotion ends. A broad fall needs costs or margins across enough products to come down, and businesses must pass those savings on.
- A sale is temporary; it is not the same as a lower normal price.
- A smaller pack at the same price is a price rise per gram.
- Cheaper fuel can help transport costs without reversing every earlier increase.
Why low-income households feel it most
Food takes a larger share of a small income. The same £10 increase therefore removes more of the money available for heating, travel or a child’s shoes. Official Household Costs Indices show that low-income households experienced about a third of cumulative cost growth over the five years to March 2026.
Families should also check free school meals and clothing grants. When there is no money for food or heating today, a Crisis Grant may be the more urgent route.
Inflation is not an excuse to ignore the price level
The site turns the official figures into a ready-written question for the people who control wages, benefits and food policy. I find your MP and MSP automatically.
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