How this was built
Methods and sources
What this means
The simple pages tell the story. This page lets you check the working.
Every source is linked. Weak or missing data is labelled instead of hidden.
Six rules I follow
Go to the original source
Every figure comes from the organisation that published it, not a newspaper story repeating the number.
Say when I did the maths
If I calculated a number ourselves, I say so and show the calculation. I also check it against a published figure whenever possible.
Do not hide weak figures
If a figure may be unreliable, the chart uses a dotted line and explains why. Readers can decide for themselves.
Say when the rules changed
Sometimes an official figure starts counting different people. I mark the point where that happened and explain what can still be compared.
Record choices, not motives
The site says what a government did and what happened next. It does not guess why someone did it or claim to know whether they are honest.
Corrections are public
If a figure is wrong, I fix it and keep a public note of what changed.
What the figures cannot prove
These limits matter. If the site claims more than the figures can support, tell me.
- The main poverty survey is reliable for Scotland as a whole, but not for each council area. Local pages therefore use separate records for child poverty, and pay. They show different parts of the story and should not be treated as the same thing.
- There is no reliable local child-poverty series before 2014/15. Older local pages can show work and neighbourhood figures, but not the same poverty measure.
- Scotland's neighbourhood list ranks places from worst-off to best-off. It does not count every person in hardship. A place can improve and still move down if other places improve faster.
- Some job figures from 2024 onward are unreliable because too few people answered the survey. I show that part with a dotted line and a warning.
- An area-wide figure does not describe every street or family. Within Glasgow, estimated child poverty ranges from roughly 5% in some neighbourhoods to roughly 75% in others.
- The pay charts are not the average wage. They cover a restricted sample of full-time employee jobs and exclude all part-time jobs, self-employment, employees outside , junior rates and pay affected by absence.
- are separate medians for separate groups. The difference between them does not track the same people and cannot prove that a particular amount of wages leaves an area.
- Pay figures show the cash amount at the time and do not remove the effect of rising prices. Compare places within the same year, not along the line.
- The life-expectancy figure describes death rates across the population. It is not a prediction for any one person.
Every source
180 sources. Each entry says what I used and any calculation I made.
- 01Glasgow City Local Policing Plan 2024/25, Quarter 3 report and appendices
Police Scotland, presented to the Safe Glasgow Partnership on 13 March 2025
The April to December 2024 table on page 4 of the appendix: sexual assault 499 to 639 (+28.1%), rape 254 to 357 (+40.6%), domestic abuse of a female 136 to 192 (+41.2%), and the detection rates beside them.
- 02Glasgow City Local Policing Plan 2025/26, Quarter 2 appendices
Police Scotland, Safe Glasgow Partnership
Page 3 attributes the domestic-abuse increase to April 2024 Lord Advocate guidance. The report covers July to September 2025, but its rape 117 to 137 table is labelled year-to-date. The counts resemble quarter-only figures in another publication; the period labelling is inconsistent and is not treated here as a verified April-to-September total.
- 03Quarterly management information reports, 2025/26 Q1 to Q4 and 2026/27 Q1 (aggregated files)
Police Scotland
Year-to-date recorded and detected rape and sexual assault counts for every council area, financial years 2020/21 to 2026/27.
My calculationEach quarter's count is the difference between consecutive cumulative totals taken from the workbook for that quarter, so quarters after the first in each year mix publication versions. Full-year figures are the Q4 year-to-date values. The rest-of-Scotland series is the sum of the other 31 councils.
- 04Recorded Crime in Scotland, year ending June 2026, Table 1
Scottish Government
Glasgow City and Scotland counts for rape and attempted rape, sexual assault and all sexual crimes for the years ending June 2025 and June 2026, and the sub-categories driving the change.
- 05Quarterly Policing Performance Report, Quarter 4 2024/25
Scottish Police Authority
The national rape increase of 15.8% in 2024/25, the note that rape of a female over 16 drove it, the 25% share of non-recent sexual crime, and the appendix statement that all crime data has come from the new national system since 1 April 2024.
- 06Deep Dive Analysis of Rape and Sexual Crime, 19 March 2025
Scottish Police Authority
The finding that more than half of rapes recorded in Scotland involve a current or former partner, and the national rape totals for April to December 2024.
- 07FOI 24-0634: crime recording software (UNIFI)
Police Scotland
The statement that UNIFI was fully rolled out across all divisions as of 5 December 2023, replacing the eight legacy force systems, and that nationality and ethnicity fields exist but are not mandatory.
- 08FOI 26-0040: sexual crime and rape in Glasgow, 2025, including accused nationality
Police Scotland
Table 2: the nationality of 117 accused entries linked to detected rapes in Greater Glasgow division in 2025, 62 of them not recorded.
My calculationThe British share (78%) is 43 of the 55 entries with a nationality recorded, not 78% of all 117 entries. The response does not establish a unique-person count.
- 09FOI 25-0272: ethnicity of rape accused, 2024, Scotland and Greater Glasgow
Police Scotland
Table 2: 153 accused entries for rapes recorded in Greater Glasgow in 2024, of which 71 White Scottish, 21 Other White British and 28 not recorded.
- 10FOI 25-1795: nationality and ethnicity of accused for sexual crimes, January 2024 to May 2025
Police Scotland
Table 3: 10,011 accused entries for Group 2 sexual crimes across Scotland, 5,440 with no nationality recorded, 3,722 British and 849 of other nationalities; and the statement that nationality fields were only introduced with UNIFI in January 2024.
- 11FOI 24-1614: nationality of rape offenders, 2023
Police Scotland
The refusal: 2023 data would need every crime report reviewed by hand.
- 12FOI 26-0373: rape and sexual assault accused by nationality, 2023 and 2024
Police Scotland
The refusal explaining that 2023 crime reports sat on the legacy systems of the eight former forces with no searchable nationality field, and that the UNIFI field is completed for around half of detected crimes.
- 13FOI 25-3132: sexual crime accused by ethnicity and whether an asylum seeker, five years
Police Scotland
The refusal: there is no searchable field identifying an accused as an asylum seeker.
- 14Scotland's Census 2022, tables UV204 (country of birth) and UV206 (passports held), council areas
National Records of Scotland via the UK Data Service
People born outside the UK as a share of the population: 19.1% in Glasgow City, 16.1% across Glasgow City, East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire (the Greater Glasgow police division), 10.2% in Scotland.
My calculationThe division share adds the three council areas that make up Police Scotland's G Division.
- 15Mid-year population estimates for Scotland, mid-2025
National Records of Scotland
Glasgow City males by single year of age, giving about 270,500 men aged 16 and over.
- 16Asylum support by local authority, quarterly datasets to June 2026
Home Office
People in receipt of Home Office asylum support in Glasgow City and every UK local authority at the end of each quarter from December 2022 to June 2026.
My calculationSection 95, Section 4 and Section 98 support are summed. The English and Welsh council figures are divided by the Home Office's own population column to give asylum seekers per 1,000 residents.
- 17Glasgow City HSCP annual report 2024/25, section 2.6.4
Glasgow City Health and Social Care Partnership
About 2,700 homelessness applications from refugee households in 2024/25, including 1,048 from households granted leave to remain outside Glasgow.
- 18Strategic Plan Monitoring Report, April 2026, page 27
Glasgow City Health and Social Care Partnership
2,750 refugee-household homelessness applications in 2024/25, set to rise to around 3,500 in 2025/26, of which approximately 900 travelled to Glasgow after being granted leave to remain outside the city.
- 19Chief Officer update to the Integration Joint Board, 18 March 2026
Glasgow City Health and Social Care Partnership
Refugee households as 44% of new homelessness demand and 50.3% of the live caseload (3,645 of 7,247) as at 3 March 2026.
- 20International migration, mid-2002 to mid-2025, council areas
National Records of Scotland
Moves into Glasgow City from outside the UK: 28,920 in the year to June 2023, 20,730 in the year to June 2024 and 15,160 in the year to June 2025.
- 21National Insurance numbers allocated to adult overseas nationals, to March 2026
Department for Work and Pensions
Quarterly registrations in Glasgow City, summed to 9,986 for 2024/25 and 9,652 for 2025/26.
- 22Irregular migration to the UK, year ending June 2026: illegal entry routes dataset
Home Office
Detected small boat arrivals for the whole UK: 36,816 in 2024, 41,472 in 2025 and 11,884 in January to June 2026.
- 23Police recorded crime Community Safety Partnership open data, year ending March 2021 to year ending March 2026
Home Office
Sexual offences recorded in every Community Safety Partnership area in England and Wales, by quarter, matched by name to 276 local authorities, one row each.
My calculationHome Office support rows are summed per council and quarter before joining, because the support file spells some regions two ways and uses old and new codes for Barnsley and Sheffield; a first build that joined on region and code double-counted 55 councils and was corrected on 6 September 2026. Councils are grouped into four equal groups by asylum seekers per 1,000 residents in December 2023 and the change in sexual offences from 2023/24 to 2024/25 is compared. The panel test is a Poisson regression of quarterly offences on asylum seekers per 1,000 with council and quarter fixed effects, a population offset and council-clustered standard errors, over 276 councils and 14 quarters.
- 24When you're arrested
mygov.scot, Scottish Government
The statement that an arrested person must tell the police their name, address, date and place of birth and nationality.
- 25Poverty and Income Inequality in Scotland 2022–25
Scottish Government
The Scotland-wide headline poverty rates for all people, children, working-age adults and pensioners, and the share of children in poverty living in a working household.
- 26Local child poverty estimates after housing costs, 2015–2024
End Child Poverty / Loughborough University
Child poverty rates and counts for Glasgow and all 32 Scottish council areas.
My calculationThe Scotland-wide rate is not published in this dataset. I recompute it by summing the 32 council counts and dividing by the implied child populations. The method reproduces the published Scottish rate of 24.5% for 2022/23.
- 27Annual Population Survey, table T01
Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS
Employment rates for Glasgow and Scotland, 2004–2025.
My calculationRates calculated as people aged 16–64 in employment divided by the resident population aged 16–64, both from the same survey.
- 28Claimant Count
Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS
Claimants as a share of residents aged 16–64, each January 2000–2026.
- 29Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, resident and workplace analyses
Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS
Median gross weekly pay within the published full-time employee-job sample, 2008–2025, on both the workplace and residence bases.
My calculationThese figures are never described as the average wage or annualised as a salary. The two bases are separate medians and cannot show that a particular amount of money leaves an area.
- 30Guide to interpreting Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings estimates
Office for National Statistics
The sample, exclusions and definition of gross weekly pay behind the pay charts.
My calculationASHE samples PAYE employee jobs, not every worker. The displayed full-time series excludes part-time jobs, self-employment, employees outside PAYE, junior rates and pay affected by absence; gross pay can include overtime, bonuses, shift premiums and allowances.
- 31Labour Market Profile, Glasgow City
Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS
The 2025 Glasgow workplace and residence pay estimates and the 2024 split between full-time and part-time employee jobs.
My calculationThe employee-jobs count shows 128,000 of 442,000 Glasgow employee jobs were part-time in 2024, which is 29%. Those jobs are excluded from the full-time pay series.
- 32National Minimum Wage and National Living Wage rates
UK Government
The legal hourly minimums from 1 April 2026: £12.71 for workers aged 21 and over, £10.85 for ages 18–20, and £8 for under-18s and eligible apprentices.
My calculationThe full-time illustration is £12.71 multiplied by 37.5 paid hours and 52 weeks: £24,784.50 gross a year. It is an illustration, not a claim that every minimum-wage worker receives those hours.
- 33A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2025
Joseph Rowntree Foundation / Loughborough University
The finding that a single adult working full time at the legal minimum reached 76% of the Minimum Income Standard, while a lone parent with children aged 3 and 7 reached 69%.
- 34Real Living Wage rates and frequently asked questions
Living Wage Foundation
The current voluntary real Living Wage of £13.45 an hour outside London, calculated from living costs rather than set as the legal wage floor.
My calculationAt 37.5 paid hours for 52 weeks this is £26,227.50 gross a year, £1,443 more than the same-hours illustration at the 2026 legal minimum.
- 35Jobs Density
Office for National Statistics, via NOMIS
Jobs per working-age resident, Glasgow and Scotland. Published for Glasgow to 2021.
- 36Life Expectancy by Local Authority, time series
Office for National Statistics
Life expectancy at birth by sex, Glasgow and Scotland, 2001–03 to 2017–19.
- 37Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation
Scottish Government, via Understanding Glasgow
Share of Glasgow's population living in Scotland's most deprived 10% and 20% of neighbourhoods, SIMD 2004 and SIMD 2020.
My calculationIntermediate releases (2006, 2009, 2012, 2016) are omitted because neighbourhood boundaries were redrawn between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, so the middle points are not comparable with either end.
- 38History, politics and vulnerability: explaining excess mortality
Walsh, McCartney, Collins, Taulbut and Batty (GCPH, NHS Health Scotland, UWS and UCL), 2016
The explanation for Glasgow's excess mortality relative to Liverpool and Manchester, and the historical policy causes.
- 39Excess mortality in Scotland and Glasgow
ScotPHO
The size of Glasgow's excess mortality after adjusting for deprivation.
- 40Drug-related deaths in Scotland, 2024
National Records of Scotland
The national total and trend, deprivation gradient, council-area rates, age profile, substances implicated and the definitions needed to compare the figures safely.
My calculationThe council comparison uses NRS Table C4's age-standardised rates for 2020–2024. The deprivation chart uses Table 9's 2024 age-standardised rates by SIMD quintile. No rates were recalculated.
- 41National Mission on Drugs: Annual Monitoring Report 2024–2025
Scottish Government
Independent policy-monitoring context for the deprivation gap, drug-related hospital stays and the wider disadvantages surrounding drug harm.
- 42Population Health Framework: evidence paper
Scottish Government
Evidence that drug deaths affect Scottish life-expectancy trends and that poverty and disadvantage interact with trauma, mental health and other risks.
- 43Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan progress report 2024–25
Scottish Government
Outturns against the four statutory interim targets in the Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017.
- 44What reaching Scotland's child poverty targets requires
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
Modelled effect and cost of individual policy options.
- 45What would it take to eradicate child poverty in Scotland?
IPPR Scotland
Modelled effect and cost of individual policy options.
- 46No shortcuts to Scotland's child poverty targets
Fraser of Allander Institute
Independent confirmation that income transfers, not employment programmes, drive the child poverty figure.
- 47Two-child limit abolition and Scottish Child Payment rates
CPAG in Scotland
Confirmation of the April 2026 abolition and current Scottish Child Payment rates.
- 48Poverty thresholds by household type
Trust for London
The poverty line expressed in pounds per week for different household types, 2022/23.
- 49Glasgow's housing emergency: submission to the Local Government Committee
Glasgow City Council / Scottish Parliament
Temporary accommodation spending and the projected unfunded homelessness shortfall to 2027/28.
- 50Asylum dispersal in Scotland
Migration Scotland
Glasgow's share of Scotland's dispersed asylum seekers.
- 51The Glasgow Indicators Project
Understanding Glasgow / Glasgow Centre for Population Health
In-work poverty, neighbourhood variation in child poverty, and workless household figures.
- 52Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2025: employee earnings
Scottish Government
Median gross weekly pay for full-time employees in Scotland, £773.80 in April 2025, used to show that a Glasgow figure slightly above it is expected rather than anomalous.
- 53Council Tax by band 2025-26 and 2026-27, council tax datasets
Scottish Government
Council tax by band for all 32 Scottish councils in 2025-26 and 2026-27, including the cash and percentage change between the two years.
My calculationThe amounts are used as displayed to the nearest penny in the two national workbooks, which record the figures reported by each local authority. Cash and percentage changes are calculated from those two published amounts. Scottish Water charges are excluded from every council-tax comparison and added separately from Scottish Water's published table.
- 54Unmetered charges 2026-27
Scottish Water
Unmetered water and waste water charges for 2026-27: £201.30 and £233.58 at Band A, £434.88 combined. These are collected with council tax.
- 55How Council Tax works
mygov.scot
Who normally pays Council Tax in Scotland, what it helps fund, and the fact that Scottish Water charges usually appear on the same bill.
- 56Council Tax discounts, exemptions and reductions
mygov.scot
The single-adult, student, disability, severe mental impairment and low-income routes that can reduce or remove a Council Tax bill.
- 57Council Tax Reduction in Scotland: 2025-2026
Scottish Government
Council Tax Reduction can cover any share of Council Tax liability up to 100%, depending on income and household circumstances.
- 58Making a proposal to alter your Council Tax band
Scottish Assessors Association
The Scotland-specific grounds and deadlines for asking an Assessor to alter a property band, including the six-month window after becoming liable.
- 59If you cannot pay your Council Tax
mygov.scot
Council Tax is a priority debt and residents should contact their council quickly to discuss smaller payments and check reductions or exemptions.
- 60Council tax on second and long-term empty homes: guidance
Scottish Government
The discounts, increases and exclusions councils can apply to second homes and properties empty for a long time from 2026.
- 61Energy price cap unit rates and standing charges
Ofgem
The 13% rise from 1 July 2026, the £1,862 typical-use illustration, and the electricity, gas and standing-charge rates for July to September 2026.
- 62Cost of living insights: Food
Office for National Statistics
Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose 38.6% between November 2020 and November 2025, and 31.6% between January 2021 and August 2024 against 9.5% in the preceding decade.
- 63Scottish Income Tax: rates and bands, 2026 to 2027
Scottish Government
The bands used to work out take-home pay: a £12,570 personal allowance, then 19% to £16,537, 20% to £29,526 and 21% to £43,662.
- 64National Insurance rates and categories
UK Government
Class 1 employee National Insurance, category A: nothing below £242 a week, 8% between £242 and £967, and 2% above.
- 65Private Sector Rent Statistics, Scotland, 2010 to 2025
Scottish Government
Average monthly rent for a one-bedroom property in the Greater Glasgow Broad Rental Market Area, £865 in 2025, against £738 across Scotland.
My calculationThese are predominantly advertised rents, recorded when a property comes to market. They describe what someone moving now would pay, not what every existing tenant pays.
- 66Universal Credit: what you'll get
UK Government
Universal Credit standard allowance of £424.90 a month for a single person aged 25 or over, and the health element of £429.80 a month for a severe condition.
- 67Universal Credit: how your wages affect your payments
UK Government
The 55p taper (Universal Credit falls by 55p for every £1 earned) and the work allowances of £427 and £710 a month.
My calculationBecause the taper is 55p rather than a pound, earnings always raise total income. This is the fact that settles whether anyone is financially better off not working.
- 68Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, UK: November 2025
HM Revenue and Customs / Office for National Statistics
Median monthly pay of £2,538 in October 2025 across all payrolled employees, used as an independent check on the survey-based earnings figures.
My calculationThis is not a sample. It covers every payroll submission to HMRC, so it is a different method and a different population from ASHE. I annualise it as 12 monthly payments: £30,456.
- 69Employee earnings in the UK: 2025
Office for National Statistics
UK median gross weekly pay for full-time employees, £766.60 in April 2025, for comparison against the all-employee payroll figure.
- 70Low and high pay in the UK: 2025
Office for National Statistics
That around 2.0 million workers, about 6.6% of the UK workforce, are paid at or below the minimum wage, which is why the middle of the distribution sits well above it.
- 71Low Pay Commission Remit 2026: National Living Wage and National Minimum Wage
UK Government
That the National Living Wage is set at two-thirds of median hourly earnings, which is why median full-time pay sits around one and a half times the minimum.
- 72IPSA confirms decision on MPs' pay for 2026-27
Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority
The basic annual salary of an MP from 1 April 2026, and the stated target for the rest of this parliament.
- 73MSP salaries, Scottish Parliament Salaries Scheme
Scottish Parliament
The basic annual salary of an MSP from 1 April 2026.
- 74Written questions and answers
UK Parliament
How a written parliamentary question works, the convention that it is answered within seven days, and the fact that every question and answer is published permanently.
My calculationThe seven-day expectation is a convention rather than a binding rule, and I say so wherever I use it.
- 75Written questions, answers and statements
UK Parliament (Hansard)
The public, searchable record in which written questions and their answers are published.
- 76Consumer price inflation, UK: June 2026
Office for National Statistics
The June 2026 CPI rate of 2.6%, and the distinction between the rate at which prices rise and the price level itself.
- 77Household Costs Indices for UK household groups: January to March 2026
Office for National Statistics
Five-year cumulative household-cost growth and the March 2026 rates for low-income households and renters.
My calculationI describe the published five-year rise for low-income households of 33.9% as 'about a third'. The HCI figures are official statistics in development and may be revised.
- 78Understanding the Cost of Living Crisis in Scotland
Scottish Government Cost of Living Analytical Working Group
The causes, unequal impact and continuing legacy of the 2021 to 2023 inflation shock in Scotland.
- 79Private Sector Rent Statistics, Scotland, 2010 to 2025
Scottish Government
Greater Glasgow's average advertised and new-let rents, including the £1,094 monthly two-bedroom average in 2025 and its 94% rise since 2010.
My calculationThe publication is based predominantly on advertised rents and does not represent what every existing tenant pays. I state that limitation beside the figures.
- 80Welfare Reform and Work Act 2016: explanatory notes
UK Legislation
The four-year cash freeze applied to specified working-age benefits and tax credits from 2016–17.
- 81Welfare Reform and Work Bill, Commons Division 203
UK Parliament (Hansard)
The final Commons division on 2 March 2016: 309 MPs voted Aye and 274 voted No.
- 82End the benefit freeze to stop people being swept into poverty
Joseph Rowntree Foundation
The estimate that the freeze left affected support worth 6.5% less in real terms by 2019 than if it had risen with inflation.
My calculationThis is independent modelling, not an administrative count, and is labelled as an estimate.
- 83Coronavirus: Withdrawing crisis social security measures
House of Commons Library
The temporary £20-a-week Universal Credit increase and its withdrawal in October 2021.
- 84Local Housing Allowance rates applicable from April 2026 to March 2027
Scottish Government / Rent Service Scotland
The 2026–27 weekly rates for every Scottish rental market area, confirmation that they remain frozen at January 2024 levels, and the newer 2025 rent evidence they sit below.
- 85Scottish Welfare Fund statistics: update to 31 March 2026
Scottish Government
The 2025/26 Scotland totals, the 52% to 89% spread in council Crisis Grant award rates, the year-on-year direction of rates and the published discussion of budget pressure.
My calculationThe article calls the published proportion of decided applications resulting in an award the award rate. It does not treat it as a measure of applicant need, fairness or decision quality.
- 86Scottish Welfare Fund tables, April 2021 to March 2026
Scottish Government
Council applications, decisions, awards, rejections, award rates, expenditure, average awards and latest-quarter processing times from Tables 6, 18, 24, 28 and 36.
My calculationCouncil rankings and differences from the 65% Scotland rate are calculated from the published whole-percentage rates. Published council counts are rounded independently to the nearest five, so local rows do not always sum exactly to the Scotland total.
- 87Scottish Welfare Fund statutory guidance
Scottish Government
The national decision framework, the end-of-next-working-day deadline for Crisis Grants and the review rights and timescales available after a refusal.
- 88Scottish Welfare Fund, help with living costs
mygov.scot
Crisis Grants are non-repayable council grants for low-income people facing an unexpected emergency; Community Care Grants serve a different purpose.
- 89Applying for a Discretionary Housing Payment
mygov.scot
Who can apply for extra housing help and the costs it may cover, including bedroom tax, benefit cap, rent shortfalls, deposits and rent in advance.
- 90Check who can get free school meals
mygov.scot
The 2026 rules for universal meals in primary 1 to 5 and special schools, and the benefit and income tests for older pupils.
- 91Help with school clothing costs
mygov.scot
School clothing grants are paid by councils and are at least £120 for a primary-age child and £150 for a secondary-age child, with local eligibility rules.
- 92The 17 October 2022 fiscal statement: summary and background
House of Commons Library
The lack of an accompanying OBR forecast, the UK-specific component of the market reaction and the subsequent rise in mortgage rates after the September 2022 mini-budget.
- 93Brexit and Consumer Food Prices: May 2023 update
Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics
The modelled effect of post-Brexit non-tariff barriers on UK food prices between December 2019 and March 2023.
My calculationThis is an academic estimate, not an official price count. The researchers estimated food-price growth would have been eight percentage points lower without the new barriers, equivalent to about £250 per household over the period.
- 94The energy supplier market
National Audit Office
Ofgem's estimate that supplier failures would cost consumers £2.7 billion and the NAO finding that licensing and monitoring increased the risk and cost of failure.
- 95Economic and fiscal outlook, November 2025
Office for Budget Responsibility
The extension of frozen personal tax thresholds to 2030–31 and the explanation of fiscal drag.
- 96Affordable Housing Supply Programme
Scottish Parliament Information Centre
The 25% real-terms fall in the affordable-housing budget in 2024–25, the increase in 2025–26 and the assessment that the 2032 homes target looked challenging.
- 97Five years of Scottish Child Payment
Scottish Government
The April 2026 payment rate and the estimate that the payment keeps 40,000 children out of relative poverty in 2025–26.
My calculationThe poverty effect is a Scottish Government estimate and is labelled as such.
- 98Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2025–26: crimes of dishonesty
Scottish Government
The 2025–26 shoplifting total of 53,369, the 19% annual rise and the counts for every other crime of dishonesty.
- 99Recorded Crime in Scotland 2025–26: tables
Scottish Government
Shoplifting clear-up rates for Scotland and each council from 2016–17 to 2025–26 (Table 3). The 2014–15 and 2015–16 Scotland rates come from the 2023–24 edition of the same table.
My calculationThe article calls the clear-up rate the share “solved”. Approximate numbers solved are recorded crimes multiplied by the published rate.
- 100Recorded crime and offences, by council area, 1996–97 to 2025–26
Scottish Government (statistics.gov.scot)
Counts and rates per 10,000 people for shoplifting, other theft, housebreaking and other crimes of dishonesty in Scotland and all 32 councils. The 2025–26 totals match the published bulletin.
My calculationPopulation is implied from the published all-crimes count and rate. Shoplifting per 1,000 people, indexed trends, poverty-group rates and council changes are our calculations. The food-price model, the pre-2020 trend projection and the correlation tests are our own analysis, with methods set out in the article.
- 101Criminal Proceedings in Scotland, 2023–24: main tables
Scottish Government
People convicted with shoplifting as their main crime, the share given a prison sentence and the average prison sentence in days, 2014–15 to 2023–24 (Tables 4b, 9b and 10c).
My calculationConvictions per 100 crimes divides people convicted by shoplifting crimes recorded in the same year. Court delays mean they are not the same cases, so the article presents it as a guide to direction only.
- 102CPI index 01: food and non-alcoholic beverages (D7BU)
Office for National Statistics
Monthly UK food price index, used for the 39% rise from April 2021 to March 2026 and the yearly changes compared with shoplifting.
My calculationYearly changes compare the average index over each April-to-March year with the year before, to match the crime years.
- 103Crime in England and Wales: appendix tables, year ending March 2026
Office for National Statistics
Police-recorded shoplifting in England and Wales, as counts (Table A5a) and rates per 1,000 people (Table A7), from 2002–03 to 2025–26.
- 104Scottish Welfare Fund applications by council area
Scottish Government (statistics.gov.scot)
Crisis Grant applications for Scotland and each council from 2013–14 to 2020–21. Later years come from the April 2021 to March 2026 tables.
- 105End of year stats factsheet: emergency food parcel distribution in the UK, 2025
Trussell
The 218,838 food parcels given out in Scotland in 2025, 13% fewer than in 2024 and 8% fewer than in 2019, and Scotland being the only nation or region below its 2019 level.
- 106Acquisitive retail crime report: key insights
Scottish Police Authority / Police Scotland
The six drivers of retail crime named by Police Scotland, the role of non-confrontation policies and self-service tills, the 36.7% repeat-offender share and the rise in 13-year-olds accused.
- 107New Sainsbury's dismissal reignites debate over shoplifting intervention policies
HR Review
An example of a large retailer's staff-safety policy that staff should not put themselves in danger to stop a theft.
- 108Is the Retail Crime Taskforce making a difference?
Scottish Local Retailer
The fall from 48.2% to 10.9% in shops unlikely to report shoplifting, from the Scottish Grocers' Federation crime reports, and a Police Scotland inspector's view that the latest rise partly reflects more reporting.
- 109Police Scotland launches Retail Crime Taskforce
Police Scotland
The Scottish Government's £3 million funding for the taskforce and its focus on Edinburgh, Glasgow and Lanarkshire.
- 110Criminal deterrence: a review of the literature
Journal of Economic Literature (Chalfin and McCrary, 2017)
The research finding that the chance of being caught deters crime more than harsher punishment.
- 111The Presumption Against Short Periods of Imprisonment (Scotland) Order 2019
legislation.gov.uk
The extension of the presumption against short prison sentences from three to 12 months, from July 2019.
- 112Prison population information note, October 2025
Scottish Government
The 477 prisoners released early in June and July 2024.
- 113Emergency early release data
Scottish Prison Service
The 614 prisoners released early between November 2025 and April 2026.
- 114Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025: data publication
Scottish Prison Service
The move from February 2025 to release most short-term prisoners at 40% of their sentence instead of 50%.
- 115Short-term prisoner release: what the changes mean
Scottish Government
The further move to release short-term prisoners at 30% of their sentence from May 2026.
- 116Proportionate response to crime
Scottish Police Authority
How the proportionate response to crime works and its national roll-out in May and June 2024. Police Scotland declined to break the figures down by crime type in freedom of information response 25-0979.
- 117Successful case management initiative extended to include shoplifting cases
Judiciary of Scotland
The December 2025 extension of summary case management to shoplifting cases.
- 118Devolved and reserved powers
Scottish Parliament
Confirmation that criminal law, the police and the courts in Scotland are devolved to the Scottish Parliament.
- 119Crime and Policing Act 2026: retail crime factsheet
Home Office
The repeal of the £200 low-value shoplifting rule and the new offence of assaulting a retail worker, which apply in England and Wales. The first commencement regulations (SI 2026/689) did not bring these sections into force.
- 120Protection of Workers (Retail and Age-restricted Goods and Services) (Scotland) Act 2021
legislation.gov.uk
Scotland's own offence of assaulting, threatening or abusing a retail worker, in force since August 2021.
- 121Peter Murrell prosecution briefing
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service
The investigation and prosecution chronology, the different treatment of Murrell, Sturgeon and Beattie, the volume of evidence, the absence of any police fraud report and the warning not to treat omitted material as proved.
- 122Peter Murrell agreed narrative
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service
The facts admitted in court: £400,310.65 embezzled between August 2010 and October 2022, the methods used, the purchases and the motorhome, Volkswagen and Jaguar transactions.
- 123HMA v Peter Murrell, sentencing statement
Judiciary of Scotland
The sentence of five years and three months, the seven-year starting point, credit for the guilty plea and Lord Young's assessment of the breach of trust.
- 124SNP funding and finances, man arrested
Police Scotland
The 5 April 2023 arrest and searches of addresses in Glasgow and Edinburgh.
- 125SNP funding and finances, second man arrested
Police Scotland
Colin Beattie's 18 April 2023 arrest and release without charge pending further investigation.
- 126SNP finances, man charged
Police Scotland
Murrell's 18 April 2024 rearrest and charge in connection with embezzlement of SNP funds.
- 127Operation Branchform report submitted to COPFS
Police Scotland
The 23 May 2024 submission of a prosecution report concerning Murrell.
- 128Operation Branchform update
Police Scotland
Confirmation on 20 March 2025 that Nicola Sturgeon and Colin Beattie had not been charged and were no longer under investigation.
- 129Statement following conviction of Peter Murrell
Police Scotland
The 25 May 2026 guilty plea and remand for sentence.
- 130Sentencing of Peter Murrell
Police Scotland
The sentence and confirmation that court work to recover money gained through crime continued after it.
- 131Prosecution statement following sentencing of Peter Murrell
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service
Confirmation that the prosecution was concluded while separate court action to recover criminal proceeds and decide what happened to seized property would follow.
- 132Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2020
Electoral Commission
The party's statement that independence-related appeals raised £666,953 from 2017 to 2020, £51,760 had been applied and the balance was internally earmarked rather than held in a separate account.
My calculationPublication by the Commission does not mean it independently verified every statement in the accounts.
- 133Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2021
Electoral Commission
The year-end cash, net assets, deficit and disclosure that £107,620 had been advanced by executive management, with £60,000 outstanding.
- 134FOI 002-23, report of SNP loan
Electoral Commission
The timing and late reporting of a £107,620 loan made on 20 June 2021. The Commission provided guidance; this source does not establish a fine.
- 135Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2024
Electoral Commission
The accounting treatment and carrying value of the motorhome while it remained impounded, and the outstanding £60,000 former-executive loan.
- 136Electoral Commission letter to the Scottish Affairs Committee
UK Parliament
The £2,248,353 in public grants for party policy research and development received from 2010 to 2022, the absence of evidence of grant misuse in annual checks and the Commission's post-conviction review of past filings.
- 137SNP shuts down online fundraising drive for indyref2
STV News archive
The March 2017 launch, the public total of almost £482,000 on 8 June and the page's removal by the following morning.
- 138SNP launch major independence fundraising drive
The Press and Journal
The April 2019 independence appeal and its stated campaigning purpose.
- 139What is the latest in the SNP finance probe?
STV News
Contemporary reporting on the 2017 and 2019 appeals and the later questions about the balance shown in party accounts.
- 140Leaked video shows Sturgeon dismissing concerns over SNP finances
STV News
The recording of Sturgeon's remarks at a 20 March 2021 SNP national executive meeting. The footage became public in 2023.
- 141Douglas Chapman quits as SNP treasurer amid transparency concerns
The Press and Journal
Chapman's 29 May 2021 resignation and his stated reason that he lacked enough information to perform his duties.
- 142Operation Branchform: key dates in the SNP finance investigation
STV News
Contemporary chronology of the 2021 launch and later public investigation milestones.
- 143SNP auditors resigned six months before party disclosed it
Sky News
Johnston Carmichael's decision in 2022 not to conduct the next audit, and the public disclosure of that fact in April 2023.
- 144
- 145SNP accounts to carry qualification over missing documentation
Sky News
The auditor's qualification because original records for some cash and cheque transactions were unavailable.
- 146SNP files annual accounts with Electoral Commission
STV News
The filing of the party's 2022 accounts in July 2023.
- 147Nicola Sturgeon released without charge after arrest
The Independent / PA Media
Sturgeon's arrest by arrangement and release without charge on 11 June 2023.
- 148Lord Advocate case updates, released correspondence
Scottish Government
Murrell's March 2025 petition appearance, the amount alleged at that stage and the £459,046.49 amount in the January 2026 indictment.
- 149Nicola Sturgeon announces separation from Peter Murrell
STV News
The 13 January 2025 announcement. It is included only as personal context, not as evidence about the case.
- 150Sturgeon will not seek re-election
STV News
The 12 March 2025 announcement. No causal connection to the investigation is asserted.
- 151Motion S7M-00294, Peter Murrell prosecution
Scottish Parliament
The original Branchform-specific proposal, its amendment and the final 71–50 vote for an independently led review covering all political-party finances.
- 152SNP move to claim back stolen money
ITV News
The party executive's reported authorisation of civil recovery action after Murrell's plea.
- 153Scottish Affairs Committee writes to Holyrood committees
UK Parliament
The committee chair's approach about possible joint work; the announcement did not itself open a formal inquiry.
- 154FOI 26-1508, Branchform court orders to the SNP
Police Scotland
The narrow confirmation that police sought no court orders compelling the SNP itself to supply financial or other information.
- 155FOI 26-1903, Branchform advice and guidance submission
Police Scotland
Confirmation of the August 2024 advice request and where the prosecution reviews and 542-page report were held.
- 156Police make inquiries over Yes Scotland complaint
STV News / PA Media
Police confirmation in July 2026 that a complaint about Yes Scotland finances had been received and inquiries were ongoing, alongside Yes Scotland's denial.
- 157Yes Scotland Limited filing history
Companies House
The company's filed accounts and dormant-company records. Companies House warns that it does not check the accuracy of information filed.
- 158Report on the Scottish independence referendum
Electoral Commission
The 18 September 2014 referendum result and turnout.
- 159First Minister's response to the EU referendum result
Scottish Government
Sturgeon's 24 June 2016 statement that a second independence referendum had to be considered after Scotland voted Remain while the UK voted Leave.
- 160First Minister's Bute House speech
Scottish Government
The 13 March 2017 announcement seeking authority for a second referendum.
- 161Meeting of the Parliament, 28 March 2017
Scottish Parliament
The 69–59 vote authorising the First Minister to seek a Section 30 order.
- 162EU negotiations and Scotland's future
Scottish Government
Sturgeon's 27 June 2017 decision to delay the immediate referendum plan until the Brexit position was clearer.
- 163Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2017
Electoral Commission
The party's 2017 income, expenditure, cash and net-liability figures.
- 164Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2018
Electoral Commission
The party's 2018 cash and net-asset figures.
- 165Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2019
Electoral Commission
The fall in year-end cash to £96,854 and the 2019 net-asset figure.
- 166SNP responds to questions over independence appeal money
The National
Colin Beattie's October 2020 statement that £593,501 was earmarked and could be deployed instantaneously, while being woven through the party's overall income.
- 167SNP finance boss quits over lack of information
STV News
Douglas Chapman's statement on resigning as national treasurer in May 2021.
- 168Loan record AL0559123
Electoral Commission
The £107,620 loan, the two repayments in 2021, the £60,000 remaining balance and the later publication of the lender's identity.
- 169Reference on a proposed Scottish independence referendum bill
UK Supreme Court
The unanimous 23 November 2022 ruling that Holyrood could not legislate for the proposed referendum without Westminster authorisation.
- 170First Minister to resign
Scottish Government
Sturgeon's 15 February 2023 resignation announcement. No official source establishes that the police investigation caused it.
- 171SNP media chief resigns over membership figures
STV News
The March 2023 disclosure of 72,186 eligible leadership voters and Murray Foote's resignation. This was a governance controversy, not a criminal finding.
- 172Peter Murrell resigns as SNP chief executive
STV News
Murrell's 18 March 2023 resignation over the party's handling of membership-number statements, not as an admission about finances.
- 173SNP funding and finances, arrest update
Police Scotland
Murrell's release without charge pending further investigation on 5 April 2023.
- 174SNP funding and finances, 11 June update
Police Scotland
Sturgeon's arrest as a suspect at 10:09 and release without charge pending further investigation at 17:24 on 11 June 2023.
- 175Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2022
Electoral Commission
The 2022 financial figures and qualified audit opinion concerning missing original documentation for a defined group of cash and cheque receipts.
- 176Scottish National Party annual report and financial statements 2023
Electoral Commission
The 2023 income, surplus, net assets and repeat qualification concerning some pre-July-2023 cash and cheque records.
- 177SNP NEC orders governance and transparency review
STV News
The internal review established by the SNP's national executive on 15 April 2023.
- 178Sturgeon rejects blame for former husband's embezzlement
Associated Press
Sturgeon's attributed May 2026 statement that she did not know about Murrell's crimes and was not responsible for them.
- 179Meeting of the Parliament, 11 June 2026
Scottish Parliament
John Swinney's statement that he had acted as the SNP's principal trustee to seek return of the money.
- 180Yes Scotland hands accounts to police after complaint
The Independent / PA Media
Yes Scotland's provision of accounts to police and its response that the money was accounted for and no wrongdoing occurred.
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